This WP identified key security drivers that are likely to lead to one of the three envisaged ideal-type scenarios: conflict, cooperation or convergence in EU-Turkey relations. It took as its point of departure the ways in which security interests and perceived threats have shaped relations since 1999. It assessed the similarities/differences in how the two sides interpret key global and regional security issues that are summed up in four clusters, covering the project’s four levels of analysis: Turkey, EU, neighbourhood and global.

Two main questions were addressed: (1) What security drivers are relevant and what constellations of them exist? (2) What are the most prominent drivers both within each focal issue and across them? As a last task, weighing and ranking of the identified drivers served to substantiate the proposed scenario(s).

Whereas security issues have traditionally been dealt under the NATO framework, recent security developments in the region have had major political, economic and social effects for Ankara and Brussels. These include Russia’s rising assertiveness and military presence, the increasing trans-nationalization of threats arising from non-state actors, the rising political and military prominence of Kurdish militant groups, as well as the faltering state structures in the Middle East, which have translated as refugees, terror attacks, and direct military involvement for the two sides. Against its importance, the research matter was also challenging because it presents a moving target.

Papers:

The Impact of Global Drivers on the Future of EU-Turkey Security Relations by Jakob Lindgaard, Andrea Dessì, Fabrizio Tassinari, Soli Özel (July 2018)

EU-Turkey Relations: Security Drivers from the Eastern Neighbourhood by Taylor Braun-Dorrell, Annika Kastetter, Panagiota Manoli, Nicolás de Pedro (July 2018)

The Role of the Middle East in the EU-Turkey Security Relationship: Key Drivers and Future Scenarios by Doruk Ergun, Andrea Dessì, Jakob Lindgaard, Dlawer Ala'Aldeen, Kamaran Palani (May 2018)

Evolution of the EU's and Turkey's Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse by Soli Özel, Pol Morillas, Jakob Lindgaard (April 2017)

 

Researchers involved:

Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies	Sinan Ülgen (WP leader), Doruk Ergun, Soli Özel, Can Kasapoglu
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs	Pol Morillas, Nicolas de Pedro
Caucasus Research Resource Center Georgia	Taylor Braun-Dorrell
Danish Insitute for International Studies	Jakob Lindgaard,Fabrizio Tassinari
Istituto Affari Internazionali	Nathalie Tocci, Andrea Dessi
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy	Thanos Dokos, Panagiota Manoli
Middle East Research Institute	Khogir Wirya Mohammed, Kamaran Palani