Economic Drivers

This Work Package identified key economic drivers of economic cohesion within EU-Turkey relations since 1999 and at substantiating one or more likely scenarios for this relationship.

Additionally, the analysis of this WP identified four main focal pillars that structure the EU-Turkey economic relations and are likely to shape future outcomes:

Flows of goods and services (particularly the past and the future of the Customs Union);
Flows of finance;
Flows of knowledge as well as
Key political economy developments such as the prospects for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Eurasian Economic Union.

As all thematic work packages of FEUTURE, this WP's research agenda addressed two questions: (1) What economic drivers are relevant and what is their constellations? (2) What are the most prominent drivers both within each focal pillar and across them?

WP3 investigated the existing economic drivers and, based on these drivers, identifed others that may play a role in the future of EU-Turkey relations. In later stages of the project the analysis determined the impact of these identified drivers by weighing and ranking them with the aim of substantiating one or more of the project’s three proposed scenarios – Conflict, Cooperation and Convergence (see FEUTURE Background Paper). The WP also provided a synthesis of policy efforts that not only fitted the Europe 2020 Strategy but also addressed the challenges that the European Commission’s annual progress reports raised.

Papers:

Understanding the EU-Turkey Sectoral Trade Flows During 1990-2016: a Trade Gravity Approach by Charilaos Mertzanis (November 2017)

The Financial Flows and the Future of EU-Turkey Relations by Hasan Cömert (November 2017)

Knowledge Cohesion in European Regions: Convergence and Cohesion with Turkey by I. Semih Akcomak, Erkan Erdil, Umut Yilmaz Cetinkaya (November 2017)

Researchers involved:

Middle East Technical University	Erkan Erdil (WP leader), I. Semih Akcomak, Hasan Cömert, Muhsin Dogan, Cansu Durukan
Caucasus Research Resource Center Georgia	Koba Turmanidze, Tsisana Khundadze, Rati Shubladze, George Berulava
Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies	Yeşil Deniz, Can Selçuki
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy	Panagiota Manoli
American University in Cairo	Marco Pinfari, Justine Louis
University of Cologne	Funda Tekin, Wolfgang Wessels