FEUTURE Online Paper No. 32
Identity Representations in the Narratives on the EU-Turkey Relations
This study aims to situate contemporary debates on the EU-Turkey relations in a broader historical context. It argues that understanding from where current narratives come and identifying their constituents, and particularly the narrators’ mutual perceptions on each other, which have endured through decades or even centuries, contributes to a deeper understanding of the relationship in critical ways. The paper is based on the results of two historically oriented studies carried out within the framework of the FEUTURE project – a narrative analysis as well as an analysis of identity representations since the 19th century – both of which adopted a comparative approach by analysing European and Turkish sources. Among others, the paper asserts that the EU and Turkey, both historically and in the present, have been important for each other in their identity construction. It argues that one of the most defining characteristics of the narratives and identities over time is their changing nature. The paper finds that narratives and identity construction processes also intertwined also with drivers at different levels, by the respective historical and political context. From a contemporary perspective, it finds that narratives on both sides have become more conflictual and that relations are likely to be dominated by conflictual elements also in the nearer future. This is, however, coupled with a constantly present conviction of the importance of Turkey for Europe and vice versa.
Authors: Ebru Ece Özbey, Hanna-Lisa Hauge, Bahar Rumelili, Atila Eralp
Date: March 2019
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 31
Five Phases of AKP Identity Politics and how it affects Turkey-EU Relations
The main question of this paper is what direction the AKP’s identity-politics is likely to drive Turkey-EU relations into the 2023 timeframe of the FEUTURE research project. Following a few initial methodological, conceptual and historical preliminaries, this paper traverses five phases of AKP identity politics with a view to identifying the underlying drivers that are likely to pertain into 2023. The upshot is that both common traits to all five phases and traits more particular to the most recent phases hold a conflictual potential for Turkey-EU relations. Elements of pragmatism em-bedded in AKP identity-politics and the possibility that identity-related drivers of Turkey-EU relations will see a drop of salience hold out a silver lining for the relationship. The paper concludes with a few initial recommendations.
Author: Jakob Lindgaard
Date: March 2019
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 30
Tracing Ebbs and Flows in Political and Legislative Reforms in Turkey in View of EU-Turkey Relations
This paper analyses and assesses the political and legislative reforms in Turkey since 1999. It assumes a somewhat circular relationship. This means, in addition to domestic critical junctures that influenced the reform process in Turkey the paper will also assess in how far EU-Turkey relations can drive political and legislative reforms in Turkey and how this affects in turn the EU-Turkey relationship. Such an assessment will allow us to draw the full picture of elements that could reinforce or reverse the trends.
Authors: Funda Tekin, Yesil Deniz
Date: March 2019
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 29
Modes of Regional Cooperation and their Political Economy
With the accession talks at a virtual halt, economic cooperation presents itself as one of the few open areas of dialogue between the EU and Turkey. On the one hand, Turkey is trying to reposition itself as a regional and global player weighing its options outside of the EU in terms of economic cooperation. On the other hand, both parties agree to the need to upgrade the current limited Customs Union (CU) agreement. Outside of but highly relevant for the political tensions between the two long term partners, the world trading regime is on the verge of major changes through mega trade agreements such as the TPP and the TTIP. Although currently rising trade wars seem to shadow the multilateral trade regime, big deals are to come whether bilateral or otherwise. More than the EU, Turkey will need to shape its policy to prevent potential losses. This paper evaluates different modes of economic cooperation between the EU and Turkey as well as Turkey’s potential involvement in partnerships outside of the EU.
Authors: George Berulava, Panagiota Manoli, Can Selçuki
Date: February 2019
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 28
Narratives of a Contested Relationship: Unravelling the Debates in the EU and Turkey
This paper outlines how narratives on European Union (EU)-Turkey relations changed over time since the 1960s and until the present. Applying a narrative approach, the paper aims to deconstruct a debate, which has been characterized by a plurality or even cacophony of stories by different actors. It presents the most influential narratives of EU institutions and Turkish political actors and traces their change over time as well as the dynamics between them. Based on a qualitative coding of a vast set of official documents from EU and Turkey (ca. 280 documents), it draws the following main conclusions:
- Different in nature: Turkish and European narratives vary considerably in their nature. Turkish narratives all share the same goal of full membership, while they have changing plots and different lines of argumentation. EU narratives differ both in their plot and in terms of the “finalité” of EU-Turkey relations.
- Progressively divergent: Since the 1960s, the number of narratives in Turkey and the EU has gradually increased and the debates have become more divergent.
- Growingly conflictual: While the study confirms that conflictual rhetoric is rather a recurring pattern and not new to the debates on EU-Turkey relations, the level of escalation on both sides in the last years has been considerably higher.
Overall, the research draws the conclusion that currently there is a combination of conflictual elements as well as arguments emphasizing the importance to cooperate with each other. Hence, the study’s results are in line with the main conclusion drawn by the FEUTURE project, namely, that the most likely scenario for the future is “conflictual cooperation”.
Authors: Hanna-Lisa Hauge, Ebru Ece Özbey, Atila Eralp, Wolfgang Wessels
Date: February 2019
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 27
Greek-Turkish Relations and the Cyprus dispute: impact on Turkey-EU scenarios
Greek-Turkish relations have come under significant strain in the last couple of years and are likely to remain difficult in the long-run there seems to be little appetite in both sides of the Aegean for a substantive discussion and subsequent negotiation for the full normalization of Greek-Turkish relations as both sides are either faced with pressing domestic priorities or with important external challenges and have no intention of spending precious political and diplomatic capital for the resolution of bilateral problems, at least in the immediate future. A Cyprus settlement has been extremely difficult to achieve over the past (almost) half a century and there is rather limited optimism that the situation will change in the near future. The sad truth is that three of the four parties to the conflict are relatively content with the status quo, or at least insufficiently unhappy with it to make the painful and risky compromises an agreement would warrant. Particularly for a large part of the Greek Cypriot community, the status quo appears to be preferable to a federal peace agreement which is being perceived as problematic, especially regarding security provisions. Therefore, the most probable scenario is ‘business as usual/muddling through’ akin to the “conflictual cooperation” scenario identified in other workstreams.
Authors: Thanos Dokos, Nathalie Tocci, Anja Palm, Can Kasapoğlu
Date: December 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 26
Turkish Public Opinion and the EU Membership: between Support and Mistrust
The support for EU memberhip is very volatile among Turkish public opinion. Over the years it has been going through different ups and downs, although it has been consistently low for the last five years. This papers analyzes the changes in the Turkish public’s support level to the EU membership and links them to the developments in Turkey-EU relations. The paper also demonstrates that two other major indicators are more stable indicators of Turkish public opinion and the EU: the level of trust to the EU and the eventuality of Turkish membership. The paper finishes with a discussion on the interplay between political discourses and the public opinion in Turkey and how the lack of trust is being utilized for political gains.
Author: Özgehan Şenyuva
Date: October 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 25
EU Public Opinion on Turkish EU Membership
This is a paper about European public opinion towards Turkey’s prospective EU membership. It outlines a trend of reclining support, makes an analytical attempt at spelling out the drivers that underpin both the numbers and the trend, makes an assessment about the direction that it is likely to push Turkey-EU relations into in the 2023 timeframe of the FEUTURE research framework, and concludes with a few initial recommendations. The conjecture of the paper is that European public opinion towards Turkish EU membership is likely to edge Turkey-EU relations in a more conflictual orientation. The paper spells out how and why. Mindful of the unpredictability of current international relations, the paper unfolds a few possible exceptions to this conjecture, and concludes with three initial recommendations e.g. on trust-building, expectation management around the necessity (if not want) of further cooperation etc.
Author: Jakob Lindgaard
Date: October 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 24
The Impact of Global Drivers on the Future of EU-Turkey Security Relations
This paper examines whether global security dynamics will act as either centripetal forces to the Tur-key-EU relations on threat perceptions and security concerns, keeping the relationship aligned, or whether they will act as centrifugal forces pushing Tukey and the EU further apart on security. More precisely, the paper surveys the roles of (i) the US and NATO, (ii) Russia, and (iii) global security shifts as well as new (in-)security trends in this context. The paper argues that these three groups of global security dynamics will push Turkey-EU relations in a more conflictual direction, if cooperation – often more out of necessity than want – will continue to keep the relationship away from the brink, resulting in a form of conflictual cooperation. The paper concludes with a few initial recommendations.
Authors: Jakob Lindgaard, Andrea Dessì, Fabrizio Tassinari, Soli Özel
Date: July 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 23
EU-Turkey Relations: Security Drivers from the Eastern Neighbourhood
A number of developments in the Eastern Neighbourhood since 1999 have affected EU-Turkish security relations. In particular the rise of Russian influence in the region and Turkey’s increasingly complex relations with both the EU and Russia will affect EU-Turkish relations. This paper provides background on the Eastern Neighbourhood’s security context from 1999 and investigates the drivers that currently have the greatest effect on EU-Turkish security interests and threat perceptions in the region. The research suggests the EU-Turkish security relationship will be primarily conflictual, but with key points of cooperation particularly in fighting Russia’s information warfare tactics.
Authors: Taylor Braun-Dorrell, Annika Kastetter, Panagiota Manoli, Nicolás de Pedro
Date: July 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 22
Gas Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean: Trigger or Obstacle for EU-Turkey Cooperation?
This paper positions energy as a critical component of international relations as it has been both a driving force for cooperation between nations as well as a source of conflict and war. It provides an overview of energy resources and trends in the Eastern Mediterranean, debating the influence of the tensions on the exploitation of gas, the role of EU and Turkey and the possibilities for regional cooperation. The paper finds that the quantity of Eastern Mediterranean offshore gas, the evolution of natural gas prices, Turkey-Israel political relationship, Turkey-Egypt bilateral ties, Cyprus-Egypt-Israel cooperation and the growth performance of the Turkish economy are main energy drivers that will steer EU-Turkey relations either towards conflict, converge or cooperation. The question of whether energy resources and trends will create an inter-regional dynamic favoring peace and cooperation or prove as destabilizing factors is essential to understand the emerging regional political environment. At the same time, the assessment of how energy dynamics affects the intra-regional order needs to take into consideration the current state of affairs marked by ongoing geopolitical disputes, including the Cyprus issue, and distressed bilateral relations, as is the case between Turkey and Israel and Turkey and Greece. The authors argue that better inter-state coordination will decrease the costs in exploration and exploitation activities, which none of the region’s countries can bear alone.
Authors: Theodorus Tsakiris, Sinan Ulgen, Ahmet K. Han
Date: May 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 21
Highly Skilled Migration between the EU and Turkey: Drivers and Scenarios
Attracting and retaining highly skilled migrants has become a priority for countries looking to address labour shortages and to strengthen their positions as knowledge-based economies. In this framework the EU and Turkey have, in recent years, been introducing policies aimed at facilitating the arrival of highly skilled migrants. Based on the recognition that migration/mobility is a bi-directional issue, this paper analyses the movement of Turkish highly skilled migrants to the EU and of European highly skilled migrants to Turkey. It focuses on the drivers that affect the mobility of such migrants.
The paper argues that in spite of the lack of cohesive legal frameworks on high-skilled migration between the EU, member states and Turkey, the presence of high-skilled migration frameworks and policies has been a positive driver in EU-Turkey relations. It notes that from 1999 to 2013, political, societal and economic developments in EU and Turkey were drivers that increased the mobility of highly skilled migrants (including students), particularly from the EU to Turkey. The same drivers, in general terms, reversed this trend from roughly 2013 onwards (marked by the Gezi protests in Turkey). In sum, highly skilled migration stands out as an area of mutual benefit, particularly to drive EU-Turkey relations in the direction of “convergence” in 2023.
Authors: Elena Sánchez-Montijano, Ayhan Kaya, Melike Janine Sökmen
Date: April 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 20
The Role of the Middle East in the EU-Turkey Security Relationship: Key Drivers and Future Scenarios
This paper analyses the effects of developments in the Middle East since 1999 on the security relationship between the European Union (EU) and Turkey. The chronological outlook allows us to identify three main drivers in the relationship. The first is ‘conflictual multipolarity,’ i.e. the conventional and non-conventional competition between different state actors in the Middle East. A cause and effect of this is regional instability and power vacuums, which create environments conducive for armed non-state actors to flourish. Second, transnational terrorism and radicalization which presents major threats to both parties and serves as potential drivers for cooperation if Ankara and EU states can agree on the risks and definitions posed by armed non-state actors. Third and perhaps most salient, is the Kurdish issue, which has seen a transformation from a primarily domestic issue for Turkey into an issue of regional and international magnitude, pitting the EU and Turkey in opposing camps.
Authors: Doruk Ergun, Andrea Dessì, Jakob Lindgaard, Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, Kamaran Palani
Date: May 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 19
Turkey in European Identity Politics: Key Drivers and Future Scenarios
This paper presents a trends survey of identity-related primarily European representations of Turkey (but also vice versa) in the 1999-2017 timeframe with a view to identifying the most salient, pertinent, and durable drivers likely to obtain and drive the relations between Turkey and the EU into 2023. It identifies four key drivers underpinning European representations of Turkey, three drivers underpinning Turkish representations of Europe and one shared driver that collectively reveal the underlying dynamics of identity-related representations of each other, a both pivotal and often controversial aspect of EU-Turkey relations. In conclusion, the paper unfolds the nature of the likely scenario of a ‘conflictual orientation’ in 2023, and adds some initial recommendations for decision makers and stakeholders to address this often both sensitive and elusive aspect of EU-Turkey relations.
Authors: Jakob Lindgaard, Ayça Uyğur Wessel, Cecilie Felicia Stokholm Banke
Date: April 2018
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 18
Asylum Policy and the Future of Turkey-EU Relations: Between Cooperation and Conflict
Migration was a critical policy area for Turkey even before Turkey became an official candidate country to the EU in 1999. Especially, with the end of the Cold War in the 1990s Turkey began to face the challenges of being a country of origin and destination, while acting as a transit country for documented and undocumented migration. Although the foundations of a migration policy were shaped in Turkey prior to the EU accession process, the EU accession process had an important catalyser effect in transforming the migration and asylum policies. This paper presents an overall analysis of the changes experienced in Turkey since 1999 on the asylum field with a projection of three possible scenarios of convergence, cooperation and conflict on Turkey-EU relationship. In that respect, this paper aims to map out the important periods that have influenced the transformation of the asylum policy in Turkey. While locating the important events and drivers at the global, neighbourhood, EU and Turkish levels, this research based on extensive fieldwork interviews presents findings of a EU-Turkey relationship that lies between cooperation and conflict.
Authors: Başak Kale, Angeliki Dimitriadi, Elena Sanchez-Montijano, Elif Süm
Date: April 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 17
It Takes Two to Tango: Political changes in Europe and their Impact on Turkey's EU bid
Political changes in the European Union and the EU member states, as much as political changes in Turkey, have an impact on EU-Turkey relations. This paper presents political changes in the EU as one of the drivers of EU-Turkey relations. It discusses whether the European “enlargement fatigue” has been, more specifically, “Turkey fatigue”. It looks at the politicisation of Turkey in European electoral debates, including some elections in the past that have shifted the direction of the relations. It then analyses three countries, Germany, France and the Netherlands, that held national elections in 2017, a year with a crowded schedule of elections across EU member states and in Turkey. While the topic of Turkey disappeared from the French electoral debates in 2017, it figured prominently in the other two elections, perhaps even more than in past elections. And while France is attempting to decouple bilateral relations from Turkey’s EU accession framework, this is not the case for the other two countries. As they stand, political changes in Europe eliminate a convergence scenario. This leaves two options as the most likely scenarios for the future of the relations: sporadic conflicts within a cooperation scenario or transactional cooperation centred on bilateral relations with member states.
Authors: Eduard Soler i Lecha, Funda Tekin, Melike Janine Sökmen
Date: April 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 16
EU-Turkey Relations and Irregular Migration: Transactional Cooperation in the Making
The aim of this FEUTURE paper is twofold. First, to outline the relationship of the EU and Turkey in the field of irregular migration and present the main drivers that underpin the relations from 1999 to 2017. While acknowledging that emphasis on irregular migration is given particularly post-2011, the paper argues that the dynamics characterising the relationship between Turkey and the EU do not change signifi-cantly in the pre- and post-2011 period. Secondly, the paper presents the most likely of the three scenarios – conflict, cooperation, and convergence – in the area of irregular migration drawing from the drivers of the past and present in the EU, Turkey, but also the Southern neighbourhood and beyond. The paper argues that though conflict is unlikely, equally so is convergence, with a model of transac-tional operational cooperation more likely and reflective of EU-Turkey relation on irregular migration management.
Authors: Angeliki Dimitriadi, Ayhan Kaya, Başak Kale, Tinatin Zurabishvili
Date: March 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 15
Turkish and European Identity Constructions in the 1946-1999 Period
This FEUTURE paper focuses on Turkey’s and Europe’s perceptions of each other in identity and cultural terms between 1946 and 1999. It identifies the identity representations developed by both sides in response to key selected political and cultural drivers of this period by subjecting selected newspaper articles and editorials as well as popular journals in Europe and Turkey to Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). Identity representations are then discussed in relation to the pre-identified focal issues in the relationship; namely nationalism, status in international society, civilisation and state-citizen relations. The study finds that mutual identity representations in Turkey and Europe continue to be contested in this period. Yet, a growing convergence of English, French, and German representations of Turkey is observed on the European side whereas divergence of representations of Europe grows on the Turkish front. While the establishment of the conception of multiple civilizations in both Europe and Turkey as well as the rise of nationalism in both contexts make it harder to justify policies aiming at convergence throughout this period, it is observed that the rise of identity representations that focus on state-citizen relations have consistently supported convergence and that European identity representations that focus on Europe’s status in international society have generally supported cooperation with Turkey in this period. Conversely, Turkish identity representations focusing on Turkey’s status in international society have become polarized and were employed in ways that justified both conflict and cooperation/convergence with Europe.
Authors: Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Johanna Chovanec, Seçkin Barış Gülmez, Bahar Rumelili, Alp Eren Topal
Date: March 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 14
Identity Representations of Turkey and Europe in Global and Regional Media
This paper examines the global (Russian and US press) and regional (Egyptian and Georgian press) media coverage of the relations between Turkey and the European Union (EU) since 1999 with respect to identity and culture. Using the Critical Discourse Analysis methodology, the research gives an outlook on how significant Others make sense of the EU-Turkey relationship in the context of Turkey’s EU bid by analyzing the evolution of identity representations over time. The research findings assert that while the US media coverage supports Turkey’s accession to the EU, Egypt, Russia and Georgia remain sceptical towards the possibility of Turkey’s adherence to the EU. The analysis shows that the international and regional media emphases divergence rather than convergence between Turkey and Europe, and presents Turkey’s bid to join the EU as a prolonged process.
Authors: Justine Louis, Shaimaa Magued, Nino Mzhavanadze
Date: March 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 13
EU and Turkish Energy Interests in the Caspian and Middle East Region
This paper aims to identify energy sector drivers at the regional level in the Middle East and Caspian Basin (ME&CB), examine their impact on EU-Turkey relations and classify them based on whether they are likely to result in conflict, cooperation and/or convergence. We found that multiple energy drivers strategically incentivize the EU and Turkey to cooperate and converge on overall political and economic policies and priorities. As European consumers (and many others) seek greater energy security and the ME&CB is poised to supply the EU and Turkey with the lion's share of their oil and gas needs, Turkey is ideally situated to bridge between Eastern supply and Western demand. This symbiotic relationship provides additional incentives for cooperation and/or convergence in the short, medium and long term. However, Turkey and the EU must first shift from conflict to cooperation and/or convergence on larger geopolitical issues regarding migration, counterterrorism, the war in Syria, Turkey's enhanced relations with Russia and Iran, and Turkey's domestic politics. Otherweise, the two sides will fail to realize the full range of mutual benefits.
Authors: Dlawer Ala'Aldeen, Kamaran Palani, Giorgi Babunashvili, Jackson Balisdell
Date: February 2018
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 12
Political Changes in Turkey and the Future of Turkey-EU Relations: From Convergence to Conflict?
This paper presents an analysis of the political changes in Turkey since 1999, through a process-tracing exercise for four political drivers -namely democratisation, civil-military relations, the Kurdish question and foreign policy orientation- that unfold these changes under three periods of Turkey’s political history (1999-2002; 2007-2013; 2013-present); and secondly presenting an assessment of which of the three FEUTURE scenarios for Turkey-EU relations — convergence, cooperation or conflict — is the most likely to obtain in the near future on the basis of these drivers. With the ever rising degrees of unpredictability in international relations to the side, the paper argues that the political changes in Turkey during the AKP reign are likely to escalate the already conflict-ridden relationship between Turkey and European Union, but also lays bare the perhaps more important questions of how and why this is likely to be the case.
Authors: Atila Eralp, Asuman Göksel, Jakob Lindgaard
Date: December 2017
FEUTURE Online Paper No. 11
Politics and Turkey-EU Relations: Drivers from the Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods
Since the early 2000s, major transformations in the Southern Mediterranean political landscape have undeniably tested the limits of the EU and Turkey’s foreign policies. To a lesser extent, drivers from the eastern neighbourhood have strained, and in some instances, strengthened relations. Overall, drivers from the southern neighbourhood are likely to lead to pragmatic cooperation, while drivers from the eastern neighbourhood, although less influential, have the potential to lead to conflict as well as cooperation in areas of mutual interest. For the foreseeable future, convergence is clearly off the table, and no driver from the Eastern or Southern neighbourhood is likely to change this.
Authors: Benett Clifford, Dustin Gilbreath, Justine Louis
Date: December 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 10
Knowledge Cohesion in European Regions: Convergence and Cohesion with Turkey
In a knowledge economy, it is interesting to see that the concept of knowledge cohesion is a fertile soil for research. Despite the ongoing interest in investigating whether economic cohesion has been achieved in Europe there is no work that looks at knowledge cohesion. Though it is difficult to investigate such an abstract concept one can look at a more concrete concept such as convergence. Using the European Union Framework Programme data from 1984 to 2016 we show that there are signs of knowledge convergence within the NUTS2 regions. Despite the fact, the top performers persist over the years the convergence is much stronger among the less de-veloped regions. The results also show that Turkey enhanced its position in knowledge exchange considerably where some of its developed regions are emergent knowledge hubs. These results indicate that Turkish knowledge system is tied strongly to the European Research Area which reduces the probability of conflict scenario.
Authors: I. Semih Akcomak, Erkan Erdil, Umut Yilmaz Cetinkaya
Date: November 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 9
The Financial Flows and the Future of EU-Turkey Relations
This paper focuses on the role of financial flows in the future of EU-Turkey relations. The size of financial flows has increased along with increasing integration between EU and Turkey. In this process many macroeconomic variables in Turkey have been significantly influenced by the movements of financial flows through assets and credit channels. The movements of financial flows can be significantly affected by the tone of the relations between EU-Turkey. Especially, under the assumption that EU stabilizes itself, in a world in which global liquidity evaporates, Turkish policy makers cannot afford the conflict scenario. Even in a world of a high global liquidity, the possibility of financial reversals creates huge uncertainty and a potential high cost for the Turkish part. Therefore, focusing on the role of financial flows, under normal conditions, Turkey EU relations are destined to evolve into either convergence or cooperation options. Furthermore, the vulnerability of Turkish economy to financial flows can increase the leverage of Europe on Turkey. Turkish authorities should find ways to decrease the sensitivity of the economy to the flows in order to increase their negotiation power in the process.
Author: Hasan Cömert
Date: November 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 8
Understanding the EU-Turkey Sectoral Trade Flows During 1990-2016: a Trade Gravity Approach
This paper explores the determinants of bilateral trade flows between Turkey and the EU countries. A trade gravity model is used to analyze annual bilateral trade in general and in five differ-ent sectors of trade activity between Turkey, 15 EU countries and 5 non-EU countries during 1990-2016. The model is augmented with non-economic control variables that are relevant in determining the volume and direction of international trade. A dynamic panel GMM method is used for the estimation. The results reveal that the influence of the EU customs agreement on trade has been positive but moderate. The rise in trade volume is primarily driven by the increase in income levels in both Turkey and its trading partners, slightly affected by transport costs and only conditionally affected by average income levels depending on a number of coun-try-level factors. As a whole, Turkey seem to have realized positive gains from trade with the EU, which provides evidence that the bilateral customs agreement has been effective in fostering trade integration and the deepening of the EU-Turkey trade relations. The results imply that policy reform must be committed to raising the trading partners’ income growth in both absolute and relative terms; to encourage adjustments in Turkey’s productive structures that will speed up alignment in economic development levels; and most importantly to consider the long-term unobservable influence of institutions that mitigate economic relations through their impact on consumer and producer preferences for European and Turkish products.
Author: Charilaos Mertzanis
Date: November 2017
FEUTURE Online Paper No.7
EU-Turkey Relations in the Midst of a Global Storm
This paper presents the global movements, trends and actors driving EU-Turkey relations: namely, the global shift of power, the declining liberal international order and the rise of authoritarianism, populism, the new US foreign policy under Trump and Russia’s rise under Putin. It analyzes the impact of these drivers on the EU and Turkey respectively, and proposes the most likely scenario on the future of EU-Turkey relations under this constellation of drivers. It argues that the transformations at the global level have diminished the capacity of the EU to act as a “force for good” in international affairs which, coupled with Turkey’s will to emerge as a global actor, is likely to increase conflictual dynamics between both actors.
Authors: Pol Morillas, Melike Janine Sökmen, Akin Ünver
Date: November 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No.6
Energy and Climate Security Priorities and Challenges in the Changing Global Energy Order
Global energy markets are facing an era of extensive change through a radical process of transformation known as the “energy transition”, which ranges from the unprecedented growth of renewables and the success of the Paris Agreement to the still unpredictable future of gas and oil prices. Europe and Turkey are heavily influenced by these phenomena, and so are their relations. A more climate-friendly position by Turkey would increase chances for cooperation with the EU – still the de facto global climate leader. A greater role for gas would boost the EU and Turkey’s need for diversification, and thus possibly for cooperation. Turkey’s significant focus on coal could, however, move the country instead closer to the anti-climate stance opened up by President Donald Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement, thus leading to a conflict scenario with the EU. The energy transition could provide a robust framework for the EU’s and Turkey’s future energy and climate relations, and one that might possibly be open to a new role for platforms such as the G20. However, its final impact will be a result of the evolution of its individual components, and the choices that the EU and Turkey will make in regard to these.
Authors: Lorenzo Colantoni, S. Duygu Sever, Suhnaz Yilmaz
Date: September 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 5
The Moscow-Ankara Energy Axis and the Future of EU-Turkey Relations
The Turkey-Russia-EU energy triangle is a relationship of interdependence and strategic compromise. However, Russian support for secessionism and erosion of state autonomy in the Caucasus and Eurasia has proven difficult to reconcile for western European states despite their energy dependence. Yet, Turkey has enjoyed an enhanced bilateral relationship with Russia, augmenting its position and relevance in a strategic energy relationship with the EU. The relationship between Ankara and Moscow is principally based on energy security and domestic business interests, and has largely remained stable in times of regional turmoil. This paper analyses the dynamics of Ankara-Moscow cooperation in order to understand which of the three scenarios in EU-Turkey relations – conflict, cooperation or convergence – could be expected to develop bearing in mind that the partnership between Turkey and Russia has become unpredictable. The intimacy of Turkish-Russia energy relations and EU-Russian regional antagonism makes transactional cooperation on energy demand the most likely of future scenarios. A scenario in which both Brussels and Ankara will try to coordinate their relations with Russia through a positive agenda, in order to exploit the interdependence emerging within the “triangle”.
Authors: Nona Mikhelidze, Nicolò Sartori, Oktay F. Tanrisever, Theodoros Tsakiris
Date: September 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 4
Turkish and European Identity Constructions in the 1815-1945 Period
This FEUTURE paper focuses on Turkey’s and Europe’s perceptions of each other in identity and cultural terms between two periods: 1789-1922 and 1923-1945. It identifies the identity representations developed by both sides in response to key selected political and cultural drivers of these periods by subjecting the writings of prominent Ottoman bureaucrats and intellectuals in the first period as well as newspaper articles and editorials in Europe and Turkey in both periods to Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). Identity representations are then discussed in relation to the pre-identified focal issues in the relationship; namely nationalism, status in international society, civilisation and state-citizen relations. The paper finds that there is no linear pattern to identity representations that are constantly contested in both the Turkish and European contexts. Certain positive and negative events trigger identity representations in novel ways, feeding into a set of relations which can be identified by conflict, convergence or cooperation.
Authors: Senem Aydin-Düzgit, Johanna Chovanec, Seckin Baris Gülmez, Bahar Rumelili, Alp Eren Topal
Date: July 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 3
Evolution of the EU's and Turkey's Security Interests, Threat Perceptions and Discourse
The aim of this FEUTURE paper is threefold. First, it aims to present in outline the main dynamics that have characterized the security relations between Turkey and the EU since WWII, with a par-ticular emphasis on the post-1999 period. Secondly, it identifies the main drivers that underpin the security manifestations of Turkey-EU relations. Thirdly, and on that footing, it presents the most likely of the three FEUTURE scenarios – conflict, cooperation, and convergence – in the field of security dynamics for the near future. In particular, the paper highlights both the centrip-etal and centrifugal forces that have marked and continue to mark the relationship. Also, global and regional dynamics and particularly the choices of the United States in the security sphere often drive the relationship even if domestic dynamics have seen a growing salience in the Post-Crisis period.
Authors: Soli Özel, Pol Morillas, Jakob Lindgaard
Date: April 2017
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FEUTURE Online Paper No. 2
Energy and Climate Strategies, Interests and Priorities of the EU and Turkey
Energy is one of the sectors in which EU–Turkey cooperation could be most fruitful, possibly leading overall convergence through the common achievement of mutual interests in key areas – in particular, natural gas imports and diversification. Yet, this collaboration is undermined by the uncertainty over Turkey’s position vis-à-vis these policies and its undefined commitment to others, such as renewables and nuclear power; by doubts over the ability of the EU to balance security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness; and by the unclear growth trends of both regions. This situation is partially balanced by Turkey’s and the EU’s participation in several – sometimes successful – platforms for energy cooperation on the bilateral and multilateral levels (i.e. ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and Med-TSO, the Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators), which are aimed at the integration of the two polities’ energy markets. Nonetheless, the overall energy framework still needs a strong policy boost to set it on a common path towards convergence.
Energy is one of the sectorsin which EU–Turkey cooperation could be most fruitful, possibly leading overall convergence through the common achievement of mutual interests in key areas – in particular, natural gas imports and diversification. Yet, this collaboration is undermined by the uncertainty over Turkey’s position vis-à-vis these policies and its undefined commitment to others, such as renewables and nuclear power; by doubts over the ability of the EU to balance security of supply, sustainability and competitiveness; and by the unclear growth trends of both regions. This situation is partially balanced by Turkey’s and the EU’s participation in several – sometimes successful – platforms for energy cooperation on the bilateral and multilateral levels (i.e. ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity and Med-TSO,the Association of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators), which are aimed at the integration of the two polities’ energy markets. Nonetheless, the overall energy framework still needs a strong policy boost to set it on a common path towards convergence.
Authors: Lorenzo Colantoni, Dicle Korkmaz, Nicolò Sartori, Mirja Schroeder, Duygu Sever-Mehmetoglu, Suhnaz Yilmaz
Date: March 2017
Watch here: Lorenzo Colantoni introducing this paper within 60 Seconds.
FEUTURE Online Paper No 1
The future of EU-Turkey relations: between mutual distrust and interdependency
This FEUTURE Online Paper aims to offer a forward-looking analysis of EU-Turkey relations based on three scenarios: convergence, cooperation and conflict. It discusses current political and social developments in Turkey and takes stock of the recent EU-level and regional developments under positive, negative and unfolding trends. The discussion shows that the future will be most likely driven by a push and pull between cooperation and conflict scenarios. On the one hand, mutual interests concerning trade, diversification of energy sources, migration and regional security concerns will continue to motivate both sides to engage with each other as partners in the future. On the other hand, Turkey’s domestic political developments marked by authoritarianisation since 2013 and violation of the freedom expression and the rule of law in the post-15 July period will strengthen the conflict scenario. It concludes with a discussion that the current EU apathy towards the social and political developments in Turkey undermines the EU’s normative influence and the credibility of the enlargement policy.
Author: Bilge Yabanci
Date: November 2016
FEUTURE Working Paper
Mapping periods and milestones of past EU-Turkey relations
This Working Paper aims to embed FEUTURE’s analysis of drivers of EU-Turkey relations in a historical context. It does so by outlining and discussing several narratives which represent influential interpretations of EU-Turkey relations at different times in history. It is argued that narratives on EU-Turkey relations became increasingly competitive in the course of time, both within EU and Turkey as well as between them. The paper maps these changes of narratives in light of different historical milestones and phases. The periodization also serves to outline trends of conflict, cooperation and convergence as manifested in the political discourse. Thereby, the paper also serves as starting point for the ensuing qualitative analysis of a vast set of sources, representing the debates in Turkey and the EU.
Authors: Hanna-Lisa Hauge, Wolfgang Wessels, Nurdan Selay Bedir, Atila Eralp
Date: September 2016
FEUTURE Background Paper
Turkey and the European Union: Scenarios for 2023
FEUTURE” – Future of EU-TUrkey RElations – analyses the past, present and future drivers of the EU-Turkey relationship. In order to navigate the possible future, a compass is necessary. This paper establishes this compass by imagining, delineating and systematizing three reference scenarios in order to organize subsequent research and eventually map out a most likely “feuture”. Drawing from Schwartz, the aim of these scenarios is to construct different pathways that might exist in future, suggesting and informing appropriate scholarly analysis or policy decisions that may be taken along those possible paths. Several conditions are proposed for the realisation of possible conflictual, cooperational or converging futures, taking into consideration forms of differentiated integration relating to these ideal-type scenarios.
Author: Nathalie Tocci
Date: September 2016